Why is this Presidential Election so weird?

We've had a load of elections around here lately - we're in our stride - so why does the looming Presidential Election feel so... weird?

We're about 10 weeks out (we think - there is still no date) and it feels like both no-one and everyone is running. Fine Gael were, until yesterday, the only big party who had a named candidate; why are Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein so reticent?

Then it feels like every week we have another wealthy rando pop up and declare - often in a suspiciously trans-Atlantic accent - that they are ready to represent the people of Ireland. This is inevitably followed by a rash of deep dive investigations exposing all of the endangered shark jaws and post-Soviet Airline shaped skeletons in those walk-in closets.

So what the hell is going on? I have some theories.

1) The election is both cheap and expensive

You are looking at spending about €250k-€500k to run a proper Presidential Election campaign; Michael D spent €367k last time around, for example, while both Joan Freeman and Sean Gallagher spent in the region of €250k. In the previous one, Gay Mitchell spent €527k.

This is a LOT of money if you are a normal person, which means that getting the backing of the party is important. But it is also a lot of money for a political party, who all ran Local, European and General Elections last year, are limited to €1k donations from people or companies, and can't spend any of the public money we give parties on elections (which is for lots of them, most of their money).

HOWEVER, if you are a rich dude, or if you are used to US politics where a run for a congressional set would cost you many times that, it might feel cheap. And if you are a super confident rich dude (and they do seem to mostly be dudes), and think you will get at least 12.5% of the vote, you might believe that you'll cross that threshold and therefore get up to €250k of that back. Last time, though, there were 6 candidates, and only 2 (Higgins & Peter Casey) reached that threshold.

2) The Office is above party politics (but the race is political)

How many of us remember that Mary McAleese was a Fianna Fail candidate? Modern Presidents tend to ignore party affiliation once they get into office - and often even in campaigning - sitting above the fray of politics of the day. This puts the parties in a strange position; why risk so much treasure and tears on a campaign that even if you win, doesn't actually benefit you?

And it can also just lead to an expensive embarrassment. Take Fine Gael; Gay Mitchell was their candidate back in 2011, and as I mentioned his campaign cost €527k. He got just 6.4% of the vote.

Presidents are also not really meant to get involved in governing, domestic or foreign policy (though they sometimes forget...).

This gives the Office a genteel air, one that could lull aspirants into thinking its all garden parties, constitutional guardianship, charismatic dogs and ribbon cutting. But the Campaign? Not so genteel. It is a political race, there is immense scrutiny, and in fact that lack of policy makes the politics of it even more personal.

Your job as a candidate is to convince everyone that you are unimpeachably morally upstanding; that is something that is much easier to disprove than it is to prove.

3) There are only a few candidates

The race is wide open, you think, why wouldn't I jump in? In the General Election last year there were 680 candidates, a big crowd to slip into, with attention and scrutiny spread thinnly. Even at party leader level there are somewhere between 8 and - I've no idea, 25? - people, depending on how you count parties.

But it is August, people have time on their hands, and lifting your head above the parapet right now declaring yourself worthy of the highest office in the land doesn't leave much space to hide.

4) You don't have to win - or really run - and you still get attention

One final factor is of course that we live in an attention economy, and the mere existence of a Presidential Campaign provides a vehicle for the great and the good, but also the mad, bad and sad, to have a cheap and easy path to seeing their face / brand gather 15 minutes of the bright lights of The Journal or The Ditch, and plastered across the Bluesky feeds of 10s if not hundreds of Irish nerds.

And actually maybe not winning - or not even getting to run - is the point. The attention economy loves a martyr, so what greater narrative could an immigrant transplant flogging whiskey to a MAGA-pilled US weave, to give a purely hypothetical example of course, then being denied access to the ballot?

{Hi! If you read this far - consider sharing this newsletter with a friend - and don't forget that you can hit reply and let me know what you think - thanks, Liz}